WP4 - Modelling & Upscaling
To predict, upscale and synthesize the effect of semi-natural habitats on ecological service delivery in crop systems at farm, landscape and European level.
WP4 will develop spatial systems models for research synthesis and up-scaling. WP4 will provide an integrated and spatially explicit assessment of ecological services at various levels of scale, from field and farms to regions and the whole of Europe. Modelling methodologies are developed and models fitted to data collected in the work packages 2 and 3 to enable an integrated assessment of ecological services at field, farm and landscape level. Modelling results at this lower level of integration are summarized in meta-models that are used for up-scaling to the European level to support the design of cost-efficient policies and monitoring tools at European scale and provide inputs for the monitoring of the implementation of the 2020 Biodiversity Strategy and the CAP 2013-2020The WP will map ES at landscape level depending on the species composition, management, shape, area and placement of semi-natural habitats, in combination with the movement behaviour of mobile agents responsible for service provision, e.g. pollinators or natural enemies of pests. Multiple ES will be evaluated in a spatially explicit multi-criteria assessment framework called “Landscape IMAGES” to identify and quantify synergies and trade-offs between different ecological services, and between costs and benefits of ecological functions of semi-natural habitat. Key ES will be mapped at the European level to identify regions where policy can generate the biggest gains or greatest monetary efficiency (bang for the buck). Alternative landscape designs will be discussed with stakeholders to explore the scope for improved management, action and policy at different levels of scale: from the management level of the farm to that of the whole EU.